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Michael Segal's avatar

It is not clear whether the Lebanon truce will work, but it is worth trying.

Its logic can be seen by comparing Lebanon to Gaza. In October 2023 I proposed a Gaza initiative in which an Arab force would replace Hamas in Gaza (mirrored at https://segal.org/gaza/saudis/). A major proponent of "day after" planning deemed this to be good thinking but premature. But in Lebanon the time may be right because there is a Lebanese military that may be capable of replacing Hezbollah now that Hezbollah is weakened and Lebanese are tired of the destruction from the fighting. In addition, the fact that a substantial fraction of Lebanese are non-Shiite makes this approach workable.

So the Lebanon plan is worth trying, and even Bezalel Smotrich was persuaded that this was worth trying.

Ben's avatar

Trimming waste is a good thing but growth is the only path out of this debt load.

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