It is not clear whether the Lebanon truce will work, but it is worth trying.
Its logic can be seen by comparing Lebanon to Gaza. In October 2023 I proposed a Gaza initiative in which an Arab force would replace Hamas in Gaza (mirrored at https://segal.org/gaza/saudis/). A major proponent of "day after" planning deemed this to be good thinking but premature. But in Lebanon the time may be right because there is a Lebanese military that may be capable of replacing Hezbollah now that Hezbollah is weakened and Lebanese are tired of the destruction from the fighting. In addition, the fact that a substantial fraction of Lebanese are non-Shiite makes this approach workable.
So the Lebanon plan is worth trying, and even Bezalel Smotrich was persuaded that this was worth trying.
It will be interesting to see whether campaign promises such as no tax on tips or no tax on social security actually occur. This doesn't seem like the time to increase the deficit.
Also no tax on overtime, and tax deductible auto loan interest, and return of full state and local “SALT” deductions … need a lot of growth or tariff revenue or spending cuts to make that all balance out.
One should also remember that tax cuts are merely postponements; one pays for them eventually through inflation or further taxes. What most matters is reducing spending.
Reducing spending is a major focus of the incoming administration. The fact that Elon Musk is on that case gives hope that one may actually achieve progress on the longtime slogan of reducing "waste, fraud and abuse".
Musk was successful at keeping X/Twitter alive despite huge cuts in workforce and spending. The initial reaction of the press was to call such cuts draconian and risky. One no longer hears such claims now that the press has pivoted to touting Bluesky, which recently had only 20 employees, as an alternative to X.
It is not clear whether the Lebanon truce will work, but it is worth trying.
Its logic can be seen by comparing Lebanon to Gaza. In October 2023 I proposed a Gaza initiative in which an Arab force would replace Hamas in Gaza (mirrored at https://segal.org/gaza/saudis/). A major proponent of "day after" planning deemed this to be good thinking but premature. But in Lebanon the time may be right because there is a Lebanese military that may be capable of replacing Hezbollah now that Hezbollah is weakened and Lebanese are tired of the destruction from the fighting. In addition, the fact that a substantial fraction of Lebanese are non-Shiite makes this approach workable.
So the Lebanon plan is worth trying, and even Bezalel Smotrich was persuaded that this was worth trying.
Trimming waste is a good thing but growth is the only path out of this debt load.
It will be interesting to see whether campaign promises such as no tax on tips or no tax on social security actually occur. This doesn't seem like the time to increase the deficit.
Also no tax on overtime, and tax deductible auto loan interest, and return of full state and local “SALT” deductions … need a lot of growth or tariff revenue or spending cuts to make that all balance out.
One should also remember that tax cuts are merely postponements; one pays for them eventually through inflation or further taxes. What most matters is reducing spending.
Reducing spending is a major focus of the incoming administration. The fact that Elon Musk is on that case gives hope that one may actually achieve progress on the longtime slogan of reducing "waste, fraud and abuse".
Musk was successful at keeping X/Twitter alive despite huge cuts in workforce and spending. The initial reaction of the press was to call such cuts draconian and risky. One no longer hears such claims now that the press has pivoted to touting Bluesky, which recently had only 20 employees, as an alternative to X.