U.S. Economy Growing at 4.2 Percent, a Federal Reserve Estimate Says

Plus, Declaration of Independence is “overtly racist,” Harvard central administration claims

The Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta’s GDPNow model says the U.S. economy grew at a 4.2 percent real rate in the third quarter of 2025.

That’s a significantly higher reading than most forecasters expect. The New York Fed has its own Staff Nowcast estimating that the economy grew at 2.31 percent in the third quarter. GDP nowcasts are one of the rare remaining areas where there is methodological diversity among the regional Fed banks rather than conformist groupthink.

The Atlanta Fed reading may not be that useful in understanding the economy. The last time we wrote about a 4 percent growth reading from the Atlanta Fed here was back in February 2025; the actual national numbers, when they eventually came out, showed the economy contracting at 0.5 percent. And this time around there’s even less federal data to go on than usual because of the after-effects of the government shutdown.

What the numbers are useful for is illuminating negativity bias in the press.

Earlier this year, when the Atlanta Fed GDP model showed a contraction, the press went wild. “Atlanta Fed shock sounds ‘Trumpcession’ warning,” was a Reuters headline. “The first quarter is on track for negative GDP growth, Atlanta Fed indicator says,” reported CNBC. “A forecasting model from the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta predicts that G.D.P. could contract sharply in the first quarter of the year,” the New York Times reported. “Economic growth is on track to almost stall in the first three months of this year, according to the latest estimate from the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model,” the Wall Street Journal reported.

There’s been no similar press attention to the positive signal.