Israel Heads To War in Lebanon

Plus, has America really run out of “good” politicians?

Telegram video captured by Abu Ali Express depicts a beeper exploding inside a Lebanon greengrocer.

Israel’s security cabinet overnight announced that it had “updated the objectives of the war to include the following: Returning the residents of the north securely to their homes.”

Shortly thereafter, electronic pagers of Hezbollah members exploded, reportedly injuring or killing hundreds or thousands of operatives of the Iran-backed, Lebanon-based terrorist group. Iran’s ambassador to Lebanon, Mojtaba Amani, was reportedly among those injured in what appears to be an impressive technical and intelligence feat by Israel.

On Monday, the chairman and founder of the Israel Defense and Security Forum, Brigadier General (Reserve) Amir Avivi,  spoke publicly of the timing considerations. Winter weather soon approaching will make it easier for Hezbollah to hide, and harder for the Israeli air force, tanks, and armed personnel carriers to operate in southern Lebanon. “100 percent the weather favors them, not us, and this is why we need to operate now,” Avivi said. “We will need to be pro-active and do something now.”

“What’s right for Israel is to do a full-scale attack on Hezbollah,” Avivi said. He said it is “best to do it now” before the Jewish holidays.

“If we won’t attack first, Iran and Hezbollah will attack us,” Avivi said. He said Israel faces a choices between a “Six Day War scenario,” in which it launches a preemptive attack and wins a swift victory as in 1967, or a “Yom Kippur War scenario,” in which it is surprised by an enemy attack and takes heavy casualties as in 1973.

Avivi said the Biden-Harris administration is trying to prevent Israel from taking action before the November election. A Pentagon-issued readout of a call between Defense Secretary Austin and Israeli Defense Minister Gallant said Austin said “Israel should give diplomatic negotiations time to succeed, noting the devastating consequences that escalation would have on the people of Israel, Lebanon, and the broader region.”

Avivi said the Israel public is mixed between feeling “very resolute” and wanting “decisive victory” and concern about coming under attack. He said the country needed to “believe that God is with us.”

If the beeper attack is indeed not a standalone operation but rather a prelude to a wider air and ground offensive along the lines Avivi describes, the economic and political implications could be significant.