It is nothing short of bizarre that polls cite a "margin of error" as if they were being scientific. However, the public is seldom told the response rates for the polls. My recollection from 2020 is that response rates were about 7%. To get projections from such a non-representative sample pollsters must weight the tiny number of responses to create an accurate picture of those who will vote. Doing so is at best an art, and can't be dignified with the scientific veneer of a "margin of error" metric.
When is the last time you took a call from a pollster? I stopped when candidates started doing push polls of the sort that asked "If you knew that candidate Y did awful thing Z, how would that change your view?"
That is the whole point: the response rate is seldom revealed. There was some discussion of response rate in 2020, but I haven't seen any since. I doubt response rate has improved. Low response rate is the dirty little secret of polls.
It is nothing short of bizarre that polls cite a "margin of error" as if they were being scientific. However, the public is seldom told the response rates for the polls. My recollection from 2020 is that response rates were about 7%. To get projections from such a non-representative sample pollsters must weight the tiny number of responses to create an accurate picture of those who will vote. Doing so is at best an art, and can't be dignified with the scientific veneer of a "margin of error" metric.
When is the last time you took a call from a pollster? I stopped when candidates started doing push polls of the sort that asked "If you knew that candidate Y did awful thing Z, how would that change your view?"
Where do you find the response rate?
That is the whole point: the response rate is seldom revealed. There was some discussion of response rate in 2020, but I haven't seen any since. I doubt response rate has improved. Low response rate is the dirty little secret of polls.