Atlanta Fed GDP Model Now Shows Negative 1.5 Percent Growth

Wide variation in expert forecasts casts doubt on pretense of precision

“U.S. Economy on Track for 4 Percent Growth” was the headline here back on February 4 after the Atlanta Fed GDPNow estimate hit 3.9 percent as a measure of the first quarter of 2025.

It was newsworthy at the time because the consensus forecasts—and even ambitious goals—were lower.

Now the Atlanta Fed GDPNow formula has again spit out an outlier estimate—this time on the negative side of things. Today—February 28—the Atlanta Fed model generated a reading of negative 1.5 percent.

Meanwhile, the New York Fed Staff Nowcast, which was also updated on February 28, is at positive 2.94 percent GDP growth, with 4.49 percent or 4.03 percent growth also in the expanded probability path (as well as 1.42 percent or 1.96 percent, for the pessimists out there).

These aren’t reflecting variations in the regional economies—both forecasts are for the national GDP.

What to make of all this?