U.S. Economy on Track for 4 Percent Growth

Plus, New York Times bias; Purdue newspaper helps anti-Israel students hide

The Atlanta Federal Reserve’s GDP nowcast estimate, as displayed on its website.

The Atlanta Fed’s “nowcast” estimate of growth in gross domestic product says the American economy is growing at 3.9 percent in the first quarter of 2025.

If that estimate bears out, it would mark a sharp leap ahead of the economy’s performance in 2024, when the growth rate was 2.8 percent for the full year, according to the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. The BEA’s advance estimate for the 4th quarter was a real annual rate of 2.3 percent, on a seasonally adjusted basis.

If the 3.9 percent figure bears out, it would shatter consensus forecasts, exceed the most ambitious Trump administration goals, and constitute a significant upside surprise. There’s some risk that better-than-expected growth would encourage the Federal Reserve to keep interest rates at current levels rather than cutting, but the law tells the Fed to target price stability and full employment, not growth.