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Michael Segal's avatar

The most important article I’ve seen on the tariffs makes clear that the “reciprocal tariffs” are not what they claimed to be:

https://www.wsj.com/livecoverage/trump-tariffs-trade-war-stock-market-04-03-2025/card/math-behind-new-tariffs-points-to-trade-imbalance-as-key-issue-W4I7vbzaO5qFZS43hAjc

"The White House’s new tariffs were pegged to amounts it said other countries impose on the U.S. In many cases, those amounts appear to match a basic formula: the size of a country's goods-trade imbalance with the U.S., divided by how much America imports from that nation.

The chart President Trump read from in the Rose Garden listed tariffs charged to the U.S. as “Including Currency Manipulation and Trade Barriers.” The numbers don't necessarily match what foreign countries charge against imports from the U.S."

The words “don’t necessarily match” are an understatement. The so called “reciprocal tariffs” are not based on other countries’ tariffs at all. The most notable example is Israel:

https://www.timesofisrael.com/trump-unveils-sweeping-global-tariffs-including-17-us-import-duty-on-israeli-goods/

"The tariffs include a 17 percent duty on Israeli products imported to the United States. Jerusalem was hit despite Israel seeking to prevent the move with a directive that Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich signed Tuesday to immediately scrap all remaining tariffs on American imports."

According to a real meaning of reciprocal tariffs, the tariff on Israel would be zero.

According to the trade imbalance approach, Israel was judged to have 34% tariffs on imports from the USA, which Trump cuts in half to be generous.

Jonathan E Burack's avatar

Always appreciate the calm analysis here. As for me, I have some qualms about what Trump is up to, but I am deeply skeptical of the levels of apocalyptic hysteria I see from conservative in places like National Review, etc. I consider that the normal tone of the left. I'd leave it there; the right does not need to imitate it. I recommend Bill Ackman on X. His seems like a pretty good assessment.

https://x.com/BillAckman/status/1908329277033979993

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