What would Mr. Goldman think a victory would look like and how would that be achieved given a starting point of 1/25? It seems to me that just losing the eastern Ukraine and Crimea would be about as much as is possible at this point.
Hard to assess what shape the Russian military is in now. The fall of the Iranian regime would be a major blow. Russia and China have divergent interests. There are possibilities here.
I agree that the industrial base must be rebuilt and new weapons development accelerated.
The Trump administration believes that moves to get Ukraine into NATO triggered Russia's invasion. This makes sense because Ukraine has territorial disputes with Russia and NATO has a longstanding policy that a country applying for membership can’t have unresolved territorial disputes (https://www.brookings.edu/articles/president-trumps-instincts-on-ukraine-have-been-bad-but-hes-right-about-one-thing/). Such territorial disputes would then draw in all NATO members, and the USA was not willing to fight to have Crimea part of Ukraine instead of being part of Russia. NATO membership for Ukraine was also opposed by Russia, with similar reasoning.
Ironically, if there is a ceasefire along current combat lines and Ukraine gives up Crimea and other territories, Ukraine will then no longer have territorial disputes and will then become eligible for NATO membership.
That could be the endgame that President Trump envisions.
What would Mr. Goldman think a victory would look like and how would that be achieved given a starting point of 1/25? It seems to me that just losing the eastern Ukraine and Crimea would be about as much as is possible at this point.
Hard to assess what shape the Russian military is in now. The fall of the Iranian regime would be a major blow. Russia and China have divergent interests. There are possibilities here.
I agree that the industrial base must be rebuilt and new weapons development accelerated.
The Trump administration believes that moves to get Ukraine into NATO triggered Russia's invasion. This makes sense because Ukraine has territorial disputes with Russia and NATO has a longstanding policy that a country applying for membership can’t have unresolved territorial disputes (https://www.brookings.edu/articles/president-trumps-instincts-on-ukraine-have-been-bad-but-hes-right-about-one-thing/). Such territorial disputes would then draw in all NATO members, and the USA was not willing to fight to have Crimea part of Ukraine instead of being part of Russia. NATO membership for Ukraine was also opposed by Russia, with similar reasoning.
Ironically, if there is a ceasefire along current combat lines and Ukraine gives up Crimea and other territories, Ukraine will then no longer have territorial disputes and will then become eligible for NATO membership.
That could be the endgame that President Trump envisions.