Taylor Swift-Travis Kelce Wedding Signals a Marriage Comeback

Plus, press fuels a panic over firing a Fed governor

Taylor Swift and Travis Kelce are planning to get married, possibly signaling an end to a long-term decline in marriage in the U.S.

The long-term trends on marriage in the United States have been dismal. That’s disappointing for those who believe on religious grounds that marriage and family formation is a kind of holy covenant involving God. And it’s also troubling for those who believe on evidence-based utilitarian grounds that marriage is, on a net basis and as a general matter (two important caveats), better for health, wealth, and some other outcomes than the alternative options.

The Pew Research Center has a chart based on census data, showing of U.S. adults ages 18 and older who are married or have never been married. “Married” declines to 50 percent from 69 percent from 1970 to 2021, and “never married” increases to 31 percent from 17 percent.

A Pew Research Center chart uses census data to track the decline in marriage.

The American Enterprise Institute, in a July 30, 2025 piece headlined “Is Marriage Back?” has a chart of the percent of U.S. adults aged 25 to 55 who are married. “Married” declines to 55.8 percent in 2024 from 64.6 percent in 2000. The authors of that piece—Brad Wilcox, Lyman Stone, Wendy Wang, and Grant Bailey—report “It is not clear to us if marriage trends for adult men and women have reached a nadir or will begin falling again in short order.”

Some data, like this from an American Enterprise Institute paper, indicate that the decline in marriage is leveling off.

They say, “The Institute for Family Studies estimates that record shares of today’s young adults—about 1-in-3—will never marry and never have children—about 1-in 4. Indeed, one reason that marriage and families are stabilizing in the United States is that family formation has become more selective for the kinds of men and women who have the economic resources and cultural commitments to succeed at family life. But this also means that historic levels of young men and women are not likely to go on to form families.”

How do Taylor Swift and Travis Kelce fit with the trend?