New York City May Now Have More Muslims Than Jews

Behind Zohran Mamdani surge is demographic shift

A 2023 study by the UJA-Federation of New York used an expansive definition to estimate the city’s Jewish population.

It’s close, but Muslims in New York may now outnumber Jews.

It’s a demographic race with political implications.

Analysts trying to understand why Canada, Britain, and France are moving to recognize a Palestinian state have pointed to demographic shifts and growing Muslim populations in those countries.

The Canadian government reported this year that “the proportion of Canada’s population who reported being Muslim has more than doubled in 20 years,” to “4.9% (1,775,715 people) in 2021” from “2.0% (579,640 people) in 2001.”

In Britain, the census reported that the Muslim population in England and Wales had soared to “3.9 million, 6.5% in 2021, up from 2.7 million, 4.9% in 2011.” During the same period, the Christian population fell to 46.2% from 59.3%.

In France, recent statistics put Muslims at 10 percent of the population, with Christians at 38 percent.

The New York City story is more complicated to piece together. In the U.S., unlike in many other countries, the federal government does not collect religious affiliation data. But there’s mounting, if less than 100 percent conclusive, evidence that America’s largest city matches the global trend of Islam gaining ground owing in part to birth rates and migration.

Here is an extensive analytic look at the available statistics and relevant information: