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Michael Segal's avatar

Labour didn't "win" the election; their vote percent barely changes. The Conservatives lost the election by hemorrhaging votes to the Reform party and the Liberal Democrats.

If Reform voters skewed young and Conservative voters skewed old, the combination of both may have had a conventional age distribution.

Michael Mosbacher's avatar

Thanks - you are right that Labour's massive win in terms of seats was based on an historically low share of vote (although arguably Labour vote would have been higher if everyone was not already expecting a Labour landslide, ie higher turnout plus fewer Green party/fringe votes).

On the second point, Reform party's vote also skews old. https://yougov.co.uk/politics/articles/49978-how-britain-voted-in-the-2024-general-election

The Tory issue with younger voters long predates Reform. They do need to recapture Reform voters, but that won't solve the problem of their aging base

Michael Segal's avatar

It is interesting that "In France and Germany, indeed across much of Europe, parties of the right do well with younger voters" but this does not apply to the Reform party, which runs on similar issues. Young people who were students seemed to support the Green party most disproportionately.

Michael Segal's avatar

It is interesting that "UK’s highest earning 1 percent are paying 29 percent of all income tax".

In the USA, the highest earning 1% paid 45.8% of federal income tax in 2021. However, when one adds social security tax and state taxes, which have flatter rates by earning level than rates for income tax, the percentage paid would be less. It would take a sophisticated analysis to calculate how much less to make the comparison to UK data.