How “Big” Is the One Big Beautiful Bill?

Estimates of effect on deficit and debt differ vastly

The Congressional Budget Office’s estimates of the next year’s federal revenues are imprecise. Ten-year forecasts should be taken skeptically.

How big is the “one big beautiful bill” passed by the House of Representatives this month? It seems like a question of fact, or simple arithmetic, but it turns out there is a wide range of estimates. The worst-case scenario is that over ten years it will add roughly $5 trillion to the federal debt, which is already at about $36 trillion. The best case scenario is that it will yield surpluses that reduce the debt by as much as $2 trillion. So the estimates differ by $7 trillion.

Let’s run down who is saying what, from the most optimistic to the most pessimistic, at least in terms of the debt effect. I found at least six different estimates.