Gaza Hostage Deal in “Coming Month or Two,” Israeli General Avivi Says
Trump demands release by Inauguration Day
The incremental ins and outs of the indirect negotiations between Israel and Hamas over a hostage release haven’t been the subject of a lot of attention here. That’s not because I’m not hoping for the release of the hostages or the return of the bodies of those no longer alive, but rather because I haven’t seen Hamas as interested in a deal. The endless reports that one was coming soon have seemed almost counterproductive, a combination of psychological warfare by Hamas against Israel, wishful thinking by the Biden administration, and an effort by Prime Minister Netanyahu’s enemies in Israel and abroad to smear him by falsely portraying him as the obstacle to the return of the hostages.
Yet the situation has now changed. This morning, Brigadier General (Reserve) Amir Avivi, the founder and chairman of Israel’s Defense and Security Forum, said three factors now make a deal for release of the hostages more likely.
First, Hamas is now all alone, with Hezbollah having been taken out of the equation by the combination of Israel’s military attacks and now a 60 day ceasefire.
Relatedly, Israel is moving six or seven brigades from Lebanon to Gaza, which will increase pressure on what remains of Hamas in Gaza. (These two points, if they result in achieving the Israeli war aim of the return of the hostages, undercut the argument made by opponents of the Lebanon ceasefire. “Hezbollah is no longer a strategic threat to Israel,” Avivi said, “It’s a 60 day ceasefire.” Eradicating Hezbollah completely would require conquering all of Lebanon, and even then, Hezbollah could withdraw into Syria. What are we supposed to do, go into Syria? he asked.)
And finally, a Trump administration is on the way into office that will probably be less receptive to Hamas demands. Hamas may figure it can get a better deal now from the Biden-Blinken team. As if to punctuate this point, Trump put out a social media post with an ultimatum. “If the hostages are not released prior to January 20, 2025, the date that I proudly assume Office as President of the United States, there will be ALL HELL TO PAY in the Middle East, and for those in charge who perpetrated these atrocities against Humanity,” Trump said. “Those responsible will be hit harder than anybody has been hit in the long and storied History of the United States of America. RELEASE THE HOSTAGES NOW!”
Avivi has been consistently accurate and reliable in predicting developments in the war, including Israel’s move into Rafah and into Lebanon.
This morning Avivi said, “We might see, hopefully, hostages released in the coming months or two.”
He went on, “Opportunities are popping, and this is the moment that I really am hoping to see our hostages coming back.”
Avivi said a Mossad general who had until August had conducted the hostage talks had recently retired and joined the Israel Defense and Security Forum. “Everything said in the media—it’s all not true,” Avivi said, saying the general had conveyed that Hamas, not the Israeli government or security establishment, had until now been the obstacle completely blocking a hostage release deal.
A former Israeli diplomat in Washington, Lenny Ben-David, noted that the Americans held hostage in the U.S. embassy in Tehran during the Carter administration were released only on the day President Reagan took office.
President Biden today issued a statement that he was “devastated and outraged” to hear that Omer Neutra, an American citizen who had been thought to be one of the hostages, had actually been killed on October 7, 2023.
“Omer was just 21 years old when he was taken by Hamas. He was serving as a tank commander in an Israel Defense Forces unit that was among the first to respond to Hamas’s campaign of cruelty— risking his life to save the lives of others. A Long Island native, Omer planned to return to the United States for college. He dreamed of dedicating himself to building peace,” Biden said. “To all the families of those still held hostage: We see you. We are with you. And I will not stop working to bring your loved ones back home where they belong.”
Of the 251 initial hostages, 117 have been freed or rescued. A November Washington Post report said 71 have been confirmed killed and 63 remain in Gaza believed to be alive.
Avivi said that in addition to the hostage release, Israel has been working on “really getting the Trump administration on board to deal militarily with Iran.”
Recent work: “Why Is the New Fafsa So Obsessed With Race?” is the headline over a column I wrote for the Wall Street Journal about the U.S. government’s effort to “simplify” the federal financial aid form, which involved adding new, complicated race-related questions. Please do check it out over at the Journal if you are interested and have access and haven’t seen it already.
As noted in Ira Stoll's FAFSA WSJ article , the law about FAFSA "now says that “in order to be eligible for Federal financial aid,” the applicant “shall provide” information about “Race or ethnicity.”"
Note the wording "shall". As detailed at https://www.plainlanguage.gov/guidelines/conversational/shall-and-must/ using the term "shall" instead of "must" merely suggests an action, but does not impose a requirement. This is why there the “prefer not to answer” option that the Stolls chose.
Ira Stoll is correct that the FAFSA form should not collect information about race or ethnicity, but until the law is changed a question about this must be on the form, though no answer can be required. In the meantime, people should choose the option "prefer not to answer". When there is an option to write in an answer, I've chosen "nonracist".
Note the difference between Trump's formulation of releasing the hostages and Avivi's formulation of a hostage "deal". Trump puts the responsibility on Hamas to act unilaterally, while Avivi hints at Israel making some concessions without specifying what those concessions will be.
Will Israel have to release thousands of security prisoners? Will Israel have to re-open the Philadelphi corridor and its Rafah crossing to renewed arms smuggling from Egypt? Will the security arrangement be such that Hamas can return to power?
The details matter. We need to ask those who refer to a "hostage deal" without specifying the quid pro quo what they mean. Are they being capitulationists and sweeping under the rug concessions that will endanger Israel for many decades into the future?