The nattering nabobs of negativity over at the New York Times are trying to sell the idea that what Israel and America are doing about Iran ought to be a negative for the markets.
Let’s think about this. Estimates vary, but the status quo in Iran is that the country has GDP per capita of somewhere in the neighborhood of $4,000 or $5,000. You can get a higher estimate using purchasing power parity, but it’s still in poor shape, because of the combination of U.S. economic sanctions and a tyrannical government that spends money on terrorism, nuclear weapons, and religious fanaticism instead of on improving education, health care, and transportation for the people of Iran.
What’s better for U.S. companies and their profits in the medium and long term—if Iran limps along under sanctions, smuggling some petroleum products to China and drones to Russia? Or if Iran’s 90 million people are re-integrated into the world economy as American customers, channeling their technology knowhow for peaceful purposes rather than nuclear weapons and ballistic missiles?
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