Five Early Lessons From Israel’s Strikes on Iran

Astonishing success reestablishes Israel as regional superpower

“The day of your liberation is near....we roll back a murderous tyranny,” Prime Minister Netanyahu told Iranians last night.

Last night’s attack by Israel on Iran is just the beginning of what the Israeli ambassador in Washington, Yechiel Leiter, said is a “long haul” that “will be measured in days, not in hours.”

Yet it is not too soon to draw some preliminary conclusions.

First, the show of strength positions Israel as the regional superpower. Thomas Friedman wrote in the New York Times June 10, 2025 of Israel in a situation where “the Jewish state is a pariah state — a source of shame, not of pride.” This operation puts Israel in the opposite position. The same way that the Hezbollah pager operation won Israel respect, the technical military feat of carrying out a long-range strike with surprise against high-value targets with minimal Israeli casualties will also translate into admiration.

This was visible even in President Trump’s comments, where he associated U.S technology with Israel’s breathtaking achievements: “the United States makes the best and most lethal military equipment anywhere in the World, BY FAR, and that Israel has a lot of it, with much more to come - And they know how to use it.”

As former Pentagon analyst Harold Rhode put it, “Now, in Muslim world, they are in total shock and awe at the power and will/determination of the Jewish State. What Israel is accomplishing in this war totally negates the Muslim narrative that the Jewish people (and the Christians) are at best ‘2nd class citizens’ and abandoned by G-d.”

Rhode went on, “In the Middle East and the Muslim world in general, two things are respected: the ability and the will to win. And that is exactly what Israel is demonstrating.”

Israeli author and analyst Hen Mazzig reports that Saudi Arabia, Azerbaijan, Qatar, Jordan, Turkey, and the UAE all “participated in intercepting Iranian missiles and drones attack against Israel.” Some of that reflects Sunni Muslims siding against Shiite Muslim Iran, but some of it reflects realpolitik respect for Israeli military, economic, and scientific power, which its neighbors want to benefit from. Medium- to long-term, as David Wurmser has explained in some of his pieces for us here, a diminished Iran may allow the rise of Turkey and Qatar as a kind of Sunni Muslim Brotherhood threat, so a defeated Iran would not mean a total regional “all clear” for Israel or American interests, but that is for another day.

Second, the Iranian people, with Israeli help, will have to decide if this is a moment for regime change. Prime Minister Netanyahu and his government have oscillated between calling for a “free Iran” and emphasizing the need to keep the current regime from obtaining nuclear weapons. Netanyahu has been doing some of both, and it may ultimately be up to Iran and Iranians which direction this goes. Last night, Netanyahu spoke to the Iranian people, saying, “The day of your liberation is near....we roll back a murderous tyranny.” By far the best outcome is a regime change in Iran rather than a setback to the nuclear program and ballistic missile program that stops short of a regime change. Israelis understand that from the example of Gaza, where, between 2007 and 2023, Israel repeatedly went in and “mowed the lawn” with strikes against Hamas. Each time, Hamas rebuilt until, with Iranian backing, it ultimately launched the October 7, 2023, attack.

When Netanyahu met Trump in July 2024 at Mar-a-Lago, he gave Trump a “Total Victory” hat. A victory against Iran that is less than “total” is any one that leaves the Iranian regime in power to rebuild its nuclear program and necessitate another Israeli preemptive strike in another few years.

Third, for all the talk about Tucker Carlson, J.D. Vance, Elon Musk, Rand Paul, and the anti-neocon and antiwar or isolationist or no-endless-wars faction in and around the Trump administration, Trump himself, especially after Mark Levin went in, is reasonably solid. He is not portraying himself as the commander-in-chief of this attack, but he isn’t condemning it or standing in the way, either. And never mind what Trump is saying publicly. The key things are the munitions that the Trump administration has supplied amply. Trump could have cut a weak deal with Iran, allowing enrichment in exchange for unverifiable promises to avoid weaponization. But Senator Cotton pressed against that course, and Trump comes out looking not like a failed dealmaker with Iran but instead like someone who supportively let Israel take the lead in cleaning up its own region. Rather than undermining the American ally, Israel, Trump gets some credit for Israel’s win. That is not a bad place to be for Trump or for America.

Fourth, Israelis and Americans love to bash Prime Minister Netanyahu. I don’t need to recount all the criticisms here. But if Netanyahu prevents Iran from getting a nuclear weapon, he deserves a Nobel Peace Prize for nonproliferation progress just as much as any arms-control negotiator does. All the people who say he is losing the war have somehow ignored that he and Israel killed Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah, neutralized Hezbollah in Lebanon, ousted Assad from Syria, achieved the return of about 200 of the 250 hostages, killed a lot of Hamas leaders, and are now in the process of spectacularly setting back Iran. For all the talk about Israeli Air Force pilots refusing to serve, the Air Force—whose pilots are typically more secular Tel Aviv left, not Netanyahu voters—played a leading role in striking Iran. So did Mossad, which is also part of the Israeli security establishment. So for all of the whining about a divided Israel and Netanyahu’s supposed authoritarian overreach, he has managed, at least for the moment, to unify Israel against Iran. Preventing a nuclear Iran is a consensus issue across the Israeli political spectrum. A win here by Netanyahu will allow him, perhaps eventually, to leave the stage—as Elliott Abrams suggested in a Council on Foreign Relations briefing this morning in response to my question—like Churchill after World War II victory. If Netanyahu is remembered as the father of the Abraham Accords and the preventer of a nuclear Iran, rather than mainly as the one on whose watch October 7, 2023, happened, perhaps it will give him the peace—and the Israeli voters the confidence—to hand off to new leadership.

Fifth, The Editors told you so. We wrote here October 1, 2024, in “After Missile Attack on Israel, Khamenei Is a Dead Man Walking”: “Israel cannot stop short of total victory against Iran and all of its proxies. Anything less is the end of the Zionist dream of a Jewish people secure in their own land.” We’re not quite yet there yet, but things are moving in that direction. As

Russ Roberts

put it, “as Shabbat approaches here in Jerusalem, the new status quo appears to be preferable to the old one.”