Did Trump Promise Auto Tariffs During the Campaign?

White House also floats income tax increase on top bracket

Toyota Corolla hybrids like this one imported from Japan would be subject to a 25 percent tariff announced last week by President Trump.

Asked on Friday March 28 about whether President Trump’s auto tariffs would raise prices on cars for American consumers, Vice President Vance replied that Trump had campaigned on the issue. “What I say to the American people is, look: the president ran on this,” Vance said.

Is that accurate?

Here is Trump’s speech at the Republican National Convention in July 2024:

Right now as we speak, large factories, just started, are being built across the border in Mexico. So, with all the other things happening at our border, and they’re being built by China to make cars and to sell them into our country, no tax, no anything. The United Autoworkers ought to be ashamed for allowing this to happen and the leader of the United Auto Workers should be fired immediately and every single autoworker, union and nonunion, should be voting for Donald Trump because we’re going to bring back car manufacturing and we’re going to bring it back fast….plants will be built in the United States and our people are going to man those plants. And if they don’t agree with us, we’ll put a tariff of approximately 100 to 200 percent on each car and they will be unsellable in the United States.

Here is Trump campaigning in Grand Rapids, Michigan, November 4, 2024: “I was making this speech in Detroit and I said -- a couple of weeks before, I said, "If they want to build a plant in Mexico owned by China so that they can save all of the costs associated with bringing their cars and all of the things, I'm going to put 100 percent tariff on every single car coming out of that plant. And if that's not enough, I'll make it 200, 300, 500, 800, I don't give a damn what it is. And they're not going to have one car made in that plant that ever crosses that border, which is right next to them."

Here is that October 10, 2024 Trump speech at the Detroit Economic Club: “Today, I am announcing a detailed plan to save the American auto industry and bring millions and millions of jobs back to our shores and very quickly. …you have to make your product here in America, and you have to hire American workers. And if these companies don't take the deal -- you know, we're lowering the taxes way down -- then they'll have to pay a tax when they -- or tariff when they send their car or product into the United States….I don't care what country it is. And they're going to hire American workers, and they're going to have a factory in the United States. And then you don't have to pay a tariff….I will impose whatever tariffs are required, 100 percent, 200 percent, 1,000 percent. They're not going to sell any cars into the United States with those [Mexican] plants.”

Here is Trump in September 2023 speaking to auto workers in Michigan: “Upon taking office, I will impose an across the board tariff on foreign made goods…Foreign auto parts manufacturing will be among our first targets.”

Here is Trump at his October 27, 2024 Madison Square Garden rally: “To bring back millions of jobs, we will give our companies the lowest taxes, the lowest energy cost, the lowest regulatory burdens, and free access to the best and biggest market on the planet…but only for those who make their product here in the U.S.A and hire American workers for the job. And if these companies don't make their products here, then they will pay a very stiff tariff when they send their products into the United States.”

When the Tax Foundation—a nonpartisan but basically center-right group that pays close and careful attention to tax policy—modeled Trump’s tax policy on October 14, 2024, it included as part of Trump’s tax plan “Imposing a universal tariff on all US imports of 20 percent.”

So where does that all net out? Trump talked repeatedly and specifically about tariffs of 100 percent to 1,000 percent on cars built by Chinese manufacturers in potentially newly constructed Mexican plants. And he talked about “an across the board tariff on foreign made goods.” But during the campaign, at least during his most high-profile appearances or his appearances with auto workers or in Michigan that I reviewed, he doesn’t appear to have informed the electorate or the markets about the proposal he announced last week, which is a 25 percent ad valorem tariff on all imports of automobiles after 12:01 a.m. eastern daylight time on April 3, 2025.

If some reader (Vice President Vance?) is aware of a moment during the presidential campaign when Trump told voters he’d be increasing the price of imported Toyotas and Volkswagens and Hondas by 25 percent, by all means let me know—the comments section is open below for paying subscribers, or you can email ira@theeditors.com—and I’d be happy to stand corrected. It’s possible I overlooked something.

But my recollection is that, beyond the tariff talk, Trump was also largely campaigning on cutting taxes—on tips, on overtime, on social security benefits. Trump and the Republican Congress so far have not implemented the tax cuts, but Trump has scheduled an implementation of a tax increase, the 25 percent tax on imported cars.

We have two recent examples of presidents who surprised voters with tax increases. Bill Clinton ran in 1992 promising a middle-class tax cut and instead delivered an increase in the top marginal income tax rates. Voters responded by punishing Clinton and delivering control of the House of Representatives to the Republicans and to Speaker Newt Gingrich, who worked with Clinton eventually to cut capital gains rates. George H.W. Bush ran in 1988 on “read my lips, no new taxes”; he betrayed that promise by raising Reagan’s rates. Voters punished Bush by defeating his bid for reelection in 1992 in favor of Clinton.

If the auto tariff surprise isn’t unpleasant enough, consider a March 28 report by Marc Caputo and Neil Irwin of Axios headlined, “Scoop: Trump might let taxes rise for the rich to cover breaks on tips.”

“Some White House officials believe letting income taxes on the very highest earners rise would buy breathing room on other priorities,” the Axios report says, explaining that allowing the top rate to revert to the Obama and Clinton-era 39.6 percent from the current 37 percent “would free up more revenue that could be used to fulfill some of Trump's populist promises, such as eliminating taxes on tips.”

It all fits the “Maybe Trump Is Intentionally Creating a Mini-Recession” theory. Otherwise, the comment that comes to mind is “for this, we need Republicans?”

I guess the best case scenario is that it’s all offset by smaller government, deregulation, cuts to other tax rates such as corporate or capital gains, and cheaper energy. There’s also a claim that Trump’s populist economics are somehow more politically salable than what is derided as country-club Republicanism. On the politics of it, you could check with Bill Clinton and George H.W. Bush. On the economics of it, we will find out soon enough. The March 28 Atlanta Fed Nowcast estimate has the economy contracting at 2.8 percent, while the New York Fed Staff Nowcast of the same date has the economy growing at 2.86 percent. People say the tariffs are inflationary, but the more tax-increase surprises that Trump springs on the public, the quicker the big worry for the U.S. economy is going to be not inflation but deflation, against which any Trump-family-backed crypto stablecoin is likely to provide not much protection.

Netanyahu on Gaza plans: Prime Minister Netanyahu released his remarks from the start of his March 30 regular cabinet meeting: “on the subject of Hamas, I would now like to comment on three false claims that are constantly being directed at us in a one continuous lie:...The second claim – that we are unwilling to discuss the final stage. This is also incorrect. We are willing. Hamas will lay down its weapons. Its leaders will be allowed to leave. We will see to the general security in the Gaza Strip and will allow the realization of the Trump plan for voluntary migration. This is the plan. We are not hiding this and are ready to discuss it at any time.”

The “allow the realization of the Trump plan for voluntary migration” formulation is useful as an alternative to the “forced displacement” or “ethnic cleansing” language that some of the press has preferred to use in characterizing the proposal.

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