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Michael Segal's avatar

If someone reads a speech instead of talking like a normal person, I typically fall asleep within minutes. I suspect that part of the appeal of leaders such as Donald Trump and Bernie Sanders is that they typically speak extemporaneously. Some may see their remarks as rambling, but their style not only conveys that they believe what they are saying, but the animated delivery keeps people engaged.

Once I went to a conference at which I thought I would not know anyone. The first speaker at the opening session read a speech, and I quickly fell asleep. The second speaker was Zak Kohane, whom I knew. Zak began by saying "My talk is going to be so interesting that even Mickey Segal will stay awake". Zak was right, and I felt I'd been introduced in a way that was good-humored.

Michael Segal's avatar

In analyzing polls one must take into account more than "the usual caveats about larger sampling error". The biggest uncertainty about polls comes from low response rate, which is often in the mid single digits. People who respond to polls are different from those who don't, and pollsters do all sorts of massaging to get data that seems representative of the >90% who don't respond. It is remarkable how well the polls do despite low response rates.

Low response rates are the dirty little secret of polling. If a poll does not disclose its response rate, the most important caveat to mention is the lack of such disclosure. If a poll discloses a low response rate, the most important caveat to mention is the low response rate.

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